Risk-Off Eases and Yields Move Back Toward the Upper Bound
U.S. Treasury yields firmed into the end of the week as the market slowly stepped away from the defensive positioning seen during the government shutdown. The resolution of the 43-day closure removed one of the most immediate sources of uncertainty, allowing yields—especially on the long end—to drift higher. The 10-year climbed to 4.146%, while the 2-year reached 3.568%, marking their strongest weekly gains since mid-summer. Behind the move was a clear repricing of the December Federal Reserve meeting: what had once been a near-certain rate cut is now regarded as only a marginal possibility.
Yield Curve Dynamics: A Clear Bear-Steepening Pattern Emerges
The curve shifted into a pronounced bear-steepening formation as long-dated yields rose more decisively than the front end. With the 2s10s spread widening toward the mid-50bp range, the market effectively signaled that short-term policy expectations have stabilized while the long end continues to absorb inflation uncertainty, renewed attention on Treasury supply, and the lingering impact of this week’s weak 30-year auction. The theme was consistent across desks: the front …
Full story available on Benzinga.com
Risk-Off Eases and Yields Move Back Toward the Upper Bound
U.S. Treasury yields firmed into the end of the week as the market slowly stepped away from the defensive positioning seen during the government shutdown. The resolution of the 43-day closure removed one of the most immediate sources of uncertainty, allowing yields—especially on the long end—to drift higher. The 10-year climbed to 4.146%, while the 2-year reached 3.568%, marking their strongest weekly gains since mid-summer. Behind the move was a clear repricing of the December Federal Reserve meeting: what had once been a near-certain rate cut is now regarded as only a marginal possibility.
Yield Curve Dynamics: A Clear Bear-Steepening Pattern Emerges
The curve shifted into a pronounced bear-steepening formation as long-dated yields rose more decisively than the front end. With the 2s10s spread widening toward the mid-50bp range, the market effectively signaled that short-term policy expectations have stabilized while the long end continues to absorb inflation uncertainty, renewed attention on Treasury supply, and the lingering impact of this week’s weak 30-year auction. The theme was consistent across desks: the front …
Full story available on Benzinga.com
Risk-Off Eases and Yields Move Back Toward the Upper Bound
U.S. Treasury yields firmed into the end of the week as the market slowly stepped away from the defensive positioning seen during the government shutdown. The resolution of the 43-day closure removed one of the most immediate sources of uncertainty, allowing yields—especially on the long end—to drift higher. The 10-year climbed to 4.146%, while the 2-year reached 3.568%, marking their strongest weekly gains since mid-summer. Behind the move was a clear repricing of the December Federal Reserve meeting: what had once been a near-certain rate cut is now regarded as only a marginal possibility.
Yield Curve Dynamics: A Clear Bear-Steepening Pattern Emerges
The curve shifted into a pronounced bear-steepening formation as long-dated yields rose more decisively than the front end. With the 2s10s spread widening toward the mid-50bp range, the market effectively signaled that short-term policy expectations have stabilized while the long end continues to absorb inflation uncertainty, renewed attention on Treasury supply, and the lingering impact of this week’s weak 30-year auction. The theme was consistent across desks: the front …Full story available on Benzinga.com Read Morecontributors, Expert Ideas, Macro Economic Events, Market Summary, Opinion, Federal Reserve, Markets, Macro Economic Events, Market Summary, Opinion, Federal Reserve, Markets, Benzinga Markets
