Domestic demand remains the primary growth driver amid global uncertainties, says Morgan Stanley, with GDP growth projected at 6.2%.

The brokerage also hiked its target price on Ashok Leyland, and the target price increase is said to reflect the positive impact of a stronger net cash position, which outweighs lowered Ebitda estimates.

Jefferies is bullish on Reliance Industries, which has outperformed the Nifty 50 by 12% year-to-date. CLSA expects a 25 basis points repo rate cut from the ongoing Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

NDTV Profit tracks what analysts are saying about various stocks and sectors. Here are the analyst calls to keep an eye out for on Friday.

Morgan Stanley On Hindustan Petroleum Corp

  • Morgan Stanley maintains an ‘overweight’ rating on HPCL with a target price of Rs 516, implying a potential upside of 27%.

  • Strong management focus on project execution in 2025, with targeted expansions at Vizag and Rajasthan refineries.

  • The company is expected to benefit from increased oil supply, robust domestic demand, and improved operational integration.

  • Currently, Russian crude is available at a discount of approximately $2 per barrel; the company’s crude mix includes about 32% Russian crude.

  • The new gas import terminal has successfully processed four cargoes, with initial volumes intended for refinery consumption.

Morgan Stanley On India Economics

  • Domestic demand remains the primary growth driver amid global uncertainties.

  • Policy easing is expected to support growth, offsetting risks from weaker external demand.

  • GST collections growth accelerated to 16.4% year-on-year in May, up from 12.6% in April.

  • Credit growth moderated slightly to 9.8% year-on-year in May from 10.3% in April.

  • Power demand declined by 4.9% in May, reversing the 2.2% growth seen in April.

  • Two-wheeler sales showed growth, whereas passenger vehicle sales declined.

  • GDP growth is projected at 6.2% year-on-year for fiscal 2026.

JPMorgan On Marico

  • JPMorgan maintains an ‘overweight’ rating on Marico with a target price of Rs 770, implying a potential upside of 10%.

  • The company is confident of delivering double-digit revenue growth in the current fiscal.

  • The Foods segment is expected to drive 20–25% revenue growth, led by the Oats portfolio.

  • Portfolio diversification efforts aim to reduce dependency on copra oil and edible oils.

  • The Project Setu initiative is expected to support better growth in General Trade during the second half of the fiscal.

  • Copra price deflation is anticipated in the September quarter, which could improve margins.

Morgan Stanley On Ashok Leyland

  • Morgan Stanley maintains an ‘overweight’ rating on Ashok Leyland with an increased target price of Rs 284.

  • The target price increase reflects the positive impact of a stronger net cash position, which outweighs lowered Ebitda estimates.

  • Domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicle volume estimates for fiscal 2026 have been cut by 2%, anticipating slower demand.

  • Export volume estimates have been raised due to continued strong international performance.

  • Overall total volume estimates remain broadly unchanged.

  • Weaker realizations in the March quarter have led to toned-down average selling price estimates for fiscals 2026 and 2027.

  • Despite margin cuts, EPS estimates remain largely unchanged.

Jefferies On Reliance Industries

  • Jefferies maintains a ‘buy’ rating on Reliance Industries with a target price of Rs 1,650.

  • The stock has outperformed the Nifty 50 by 12% year-to-date, driven by a recovery in retail growth.

  • Improved visibility on fiscal 2026 growth due to expansion in retail space, a constructive tariff outlook for Jio, and strong performance in the Oil-to-Chemicals segment in the current quarter.

  • Jefferies sees room for further re-rating as Reliance trades below its long-term forward enterprise value to Ebitda average.

  • Geopolitical risks and low European gas storage could support diesel cracks, benefiting refining margins.

  • Refinery closures elsewhere are aiding Reliance’s operating rates.

  • Jio is expected to deliver 23% Ebitda growth, with near-term strength in the O2C business.

CLSA On India Property

  • CLSA expects a 25 basis points repo rate cut from the ongoing Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

  • Additional rate cuts of 50–75 basis points are anticipated in the remainder of the fiscal.

  • Affordable and mid-income housing segments are expected to benefit significantly from these rate cuts.

  • Lower interest rates on debt and slight asset price reflation will benefit annuity players in the real estate sector.

Key beneficiaries:

  • Sobha: Upgrade to ‘hold’ with a target price of Rs 1,550, implying a potential downside of 3%.

  • Prestige Estates: Maintain ‘outperform’ with a target price of Rs 2,380, implying a potential upside of 46%.

  • Godrej Properties: Maintain ‘outperform’ with a target price of Rs 2,770, implying a potential upside of 20%.

  • Sunteck Realty: Maintain outperform’ with a target price of Rs 625, implying a potential upside of 44%.

Other Rate Cut Beneficiaries:

  • All REITs: Embassy REIT, Mindspace REIT, Brookfield REIT, and Nexus REIT.

  • Large annuity players: DLF and Phoenix Mills.

CLSA On Bajaj Auto

  • CLSA maintained an ‘overweight’ rating on Bajaj Auto with an increased target price of Rs 10,149, implying a potential upside of 19%.

  • Bajaj Auto remains CLSA’s preferred pick in the two-wheeler space due to steady margins and export recovery.

  • The company aims to gain market share in the 125-cc+ segment, led by a model refresh of the Pulsar series.

  • Plans to launch the Chetak electric scooter with a 3kWh battery capacity to further strengthen market share.

  • Management is confident of growing export volumes by 15–20% in fiscal 2026.

  • Bajaj Auto is targeting a turnaround in KTM by 2026 following recent planned restructuring efforts.

Morgan Stanley On ONGC

  • Morgan Stanley maintained an ‘overweight’ rating on ONGC with a target price of Rs 308, implying a potential upside of 29%.

  • Hook-ups to KG basin oil and gas wells are expected to be completed in the current quarter, subject to monsoon conditions; otherwise, completion may shift to the final quarter.

  • Rig costs have fallen to approximately $35,000 per barrel per day, which should support margins despite lower crude realisations.

  • Monetisation of the OPAL gas cracker project continues to progress on schedule.

  • This fiscal’s standalone capital expenditure is expected to nearly halve compared to last fiscal.

CLSA On India Consumer

  • Urban consumption lags rural, but urban areas face more distribution challenges.

  • Home and personal care companies showed weak performance with 4% year-on-year sales growth and a slight decline in Ebitda.

  • Food and beverage companies performed better, with 7% year-on-year sales growth and slight Ebitda growth.

  • Quick Service Restaurant companies delivered high-teen growth.

  • Overall, discretionary consumption outperformed staples.

  • CLSA prefers food and beverage over home and personal care sectors.

Top Picks

  • Eternal.

  • Swiggy.

  • DMart.

  • Varun Beverages.

  • Britannia.

  • Nestle.

Bearish on

  • Hindustan Unilever.

  • Godrej Consumer.

  • Marico.

  • Jubilant FoodWorks.

  • Asian Paints.

  • Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail.

Jefferies On Financials

  • The Reserve Bank of India is likely to cut rates.

  • Inflation is expected to stay below forecasts.

  • Banking system liquidity is at its highest level in three years.

  • Sequential improvement observed in AngelOne’s numbers.

  • Finance facility to buy health insurance is gaining traction.

  • IIFL Finance is hiring more bankers to strengthen its Ultra High Net Worth Individual team.

  • Zerodha expects 10-20% lower broking revenue in the fiscal.

Citi On Implications Of Disruption In Rare Earth Minerals Supply Chain

  • Disruption in rare earth minerals supply is likely to impact auto production in India.

  • SIAM noted that production could be impacted if no resolution is reached soon.

  • OEMs and part-makers have expressed concerns.

  • EVs expected to be affected more by unavailability of rare earth magnets.

  • There could be some impact on ICE vehicles as well.

  • Would watch for newsflow on progress of clearances for companies that have applied for End-User Certificate.

Morgan Stanley On Mahanagar Gas

  • Morgan Stanley maintains an ‘overweight’ rating on ONGC with a target price of Rs 1,797, implying a potential upside of 38%.

Management Takeaways:

  • Targets 9-10% volume growth in the transportation segment.

  • Industrial volume growth target set at 20%.

  • Allocation from Administered Price Mechanism gas stands at 35%.

  • Expects an Ebitda margin of Rs 8 per standard cubic meter over the long term.

  • LNG trucking is expected to be 10-15% more cost-effective compared to diesel.

  • Plans to open four additional LNG trucking stations to expand infrastructure.

  • Mumbai’s travel and energy demand strongly favor MGL’s business model.

  • Anticipates continued high levels of four-wheeler CNG conversions.

  • Valuations appear reasonable at approximately 12 times one-year forward Price-to-Earnings ratio.

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